Countdown to polling day: With Sir John Curtice
On Wednesday evening we hosted a discussion "Countdown to polling day: With Sir John Curtice". Sir John was joined by Hardeep Matharu, editor of Byline Times, and Maria Iacovou, Professor of Quantitative Sociology at the University of Cambridge. Our chair was Sangita Myska, journalist and TV presenter.
With one of the most tumultuous General Elections approaching to date, we dove into the recent data showcasing electoral preferences, participation, and patterns.
Our panellists also engaged in a roundtable discussion analysing a multitude of factors that could affect this election.
Sir John Curtice started the event by presenting a few different polls. He first explained how the previous parliament was an odd one, with events such as the Covid pandemic, Partygate, and multiple changes in leadership drastically affecting the government’s standing.
Curtice then discussed the current state of the General Election campaign, with the Conservative Party still 20 or more points behind the Labour Party, the same as when they started, and also a record low for the Conservative Party.
Nigel Farage has played a part in this, Curtice said, with his decision to become party leader of Reform UK. He predicted that we are heading towards the lowest combined two party share, and this is also the first election where five political parties have fought for virtually every seat.
As for where the 2019 Conservative voters have gone, originally some switched to Labour, but now 1 in 4 are turning to Reform. The Conservative party posed the idea that voting for Farage will result in Sir Keir Starmer becoming Prime Minister, but data shows this won’t change Reform voters’ minds - most respondents chose ‘Neither’ when asked to choose between Labour and Conservative.
Even though there are still a substantial number of undecided voters, Curtice said that the electoral system looks like it may work against the Conservatives as compared with the 2019 General Election, with their vote falling very heavily in seats where they were previously strongest. Reform is advancing most strongly in Conservative territory.
Finally, Curtice spoke on how we may be heading towards the most disproportionate election ever seen. Despite this, the Liberal Democrats could end up with their proportional share, given the state of the Conservatives and the use of tactical voting. He predicted that 11% of the vote could deliver 12% of the seats. Meanwhile, the Conservatives may get 22% of the vote and 17% of the seats.
Afterwards, our panellists engaged in further discussion. Hardeep Matharu posed the question of whether democracy is even working, especially for younger people, and why that might influence the trend towards proportional representation. She also emphasised that this conversation cannot take place without acknowledging that democracy cannot be separated from the media and the news outlets that portray it.
Maria Iacovou touched on why we’re approaching a monumental moment for change, due to the all-time low levels of satisfaction with government, the rising levels of distrust, and the majority of the public now in favour of an electoral change to proportional representation. Curtice added that disappointment with politicians is related to support for electoral reform.
Our chair Sangita Myska then brought up the growing fear of many that implementing electoral reform may result in the success of a far right party in the UK, as seen in recent elections in the European Union. She asked how problematic this was in persuading the public that PR is a good thing. Ms Iacovou confirmed that far right parties would be likely to gain some seats under proportional representation, but that it isn’t too high a price to pay for a fairer political system.
A wide range of questions were asked by the audience - how to educate the country on coalitions, the role of turnout, whether the conservatives could lose their place as the second party, the use of citizens’ assemblies, tactical and compulsory voting, and much more. Our panellists provided extensive insights, such as the UK possibly following the general European shift and establishing a mainstream extreme right-wing party, how turnout amongst youth is drastically low, and why voters are resorting to tactical voting due to a lack of proportional representation.
At Unlock Democracy, our vision is to create a fairer democracy where all votes count equally. If Sir John Curtice’s predictions come to fruition, the General Election result on the morning of July 5th will reveal just how warped our politics is under the unfair First Past the Post voting system.
In case you missed it, you can watch the webinar on our Youtube channel.
Written by Alexia Holliday, Intern at Unlock Democracy