Trump’s gerrymandering war: reflections from the UK
This August, President Trump kickstarted a gerrymandering war by instructing Texas Republicans to redraw the state’s congressional districts - with Democrat Gavin Newsom responding with retaliatory redistricting in California. Unlock Democracy covered the matter on our blog earlier this month.
But what would constitute an appropriate, democratic response from the Democrats? And what does this mean for UK democracy? Unlock Democracy conducted a survey of supporters to find out
The threat of Donald Trump
Such explicit calls for the political process to be rigged in the Republicans’ favour highlight a complete contempt from Trump towards democracy.
This, alongside Trump’s anti-democratic track record, led supporters to express overwhelming concern regarding Trump’s relationship with US democracy - with 90% of those surveyed deeming him a ‘very serious danger’ to US democracy, whilst a further 6% designated him ‘quite a serious danger’.
Evidently, persistent measures to manipulate the political process for party political gain are a source of severe concern over the health of democracy.
An appropriate response?
Trump’s actions pose a dilemma for the Democrats - do they imitate Trump’s gerrymandering to ‘cancel out’ provisional gains in the House of Representatives, or do they defend democratic values and maintain the moral high ground?
In response to Newsom’s retaliatory redistricting, 26% of surveyed supporters agreed that there was no different way that the Democrats could have responded - with many emphasising the need to “fight fire with fire”.
However, 22% of those surveyed contended that Democrats should have responded in a different way - highlighting the importance of maintaining the moral high ground.
Nonetheless, a noteworthy 52% of respondents indicated uncertainty regarding whether the Democrats responded appropriately - with most citing a sense of conflict between the strategic necessity of gerrymandering and its democratic illegitimacy.
The remarkable lack of consensus amongst supporters on this question highlights the sheer difficulty of the dilemma that Trump has thrust upon Democrats.
For those who genuinely want to safeguard democracy, it is never obvious how to respond when democratic processes are so violently trampled upon.
Nonetheless, Newsom’s retaliation suggests that US politics risks triggering a chain reaction, in which both main parties attempt to surpass the other’s gerrymandering in order to gain an electoral advantage. The unwillingness of the main parties to unilaterally surrender such advantages will likely render these new boundaries a democratic obstacle for years to come.
What this means for UK democracy
In the wake of US gerrymandering, we asked supporters whether they were concerned that a future UK government may attempt to politicise UK elections in a similar way.
The results were incredibly decisive; 55% were ‘very concerned’ about such a prospect, with a further 35% being ‘somewhat concerned’. Notably, a mere 2% of respondents were ‘not concerned at all’.
Evidently, democratic backsliding in the US has triggered a sense of insecurity towards the health of British democracy.
And this is not without justification. With the placing of the Electoral Commission under the supervision of ministers in 2022, alongside obliging the Commission to follow a government-issued “strategy and policy statement”, it’s no surprise that supporters are concerned about the politicisation of the British electoral process.
Whilst this control has not yet been exploited in a partisan manner, the fact that such power is granted to the government points to a severe vulnerability in our electoral process.
Accordingly, we asked our supporters whether the government should restore the independence of the Electoral Commission. The results were near-unanimous, with a whopping 95% in favour, and only 1% against.
This overwhelming consensus indicates a widespread desire amongst supporters for a shift in government policy to protect against potential future politicisation of the electoral process.
However, despite a former shadow democracy minister describing infringement of the Electoral Commission’s independence as a “dangerous precedent,” and a former Minister, Lord Khan, from the current government stating, “The existence of a strategy and policy statement for the Electoral Commission is inconsistent with the commission’s role as an independent regulator”, Labour has remained incredibly quiet about restoring the Commission’s independence since coming to power.
Unlock Democracy believes that restoring Electoral Commission independence is of utmost importance to safeguarding UK democracy.
With the gerrymandering war across the pond initiated by Trump alone, it is apparent that it takes just one power-seeking actor to trigger a major escalation in the politicisation of the political process. Accordingly, it is vital that any UK government does not have the constitutional apparatus to trigger such a democratic backslide with the snap of a finger.
Clearly, we must push for the restoration of the Electoral Commission’s independence, and the removal of any mechanisms for electoral politicisation. Otherwise, UK democracy is at risk of succumbing to America’s fate - one of partisan division and democratic decline.