Distrust, Disillusionment, and the Rise of Anti-Establishment Attitudes in the UK
Reflection on the findings from a student research project
By Bartlomiej Korolec, Student in International Public Administration, Erasmus Univeristy, Rotterdam, Netherlands
Across Europe, political trust is in decline — and Britain is no exception. Confidence in the government, political institutions and politicians is at a record low and the position of two major political parties, Labour and Conservatives, is being redefined. Therefore, a question emerges: what are the implications of that situation and what is to be done by the political elites to counter the eroded trust?
At first glance, the situation of the traditional parties seems within the norm. During the last parliamentary elections in June 2024, the Labour Party enjoyed unquestionable success securing 412 out of 650 seats in the national parliament and gaining power back after 14 years of Conservative rule. Taking this into account, one could argue that the establishment parties maintain a strong position and that this is merely another traditional shift that has occurred numerous times in the past. However, upon closer examination, the situation does not appear as favourable for these two parties. The formerly mentioned success of Labour was not a consequence of a drastic increase in Labour party support but rather an indication of the wickedness of its main opposition and the first-past-the-post system, operating in the UK. Such an electoral system, at the expense of proportionally reflecting public opinion in parliament, favours the largest parties in order to strengthen the winner, effectively limiting smaller parties' presence in the parliament. As a result, even though the Labour and Conservatives gained only just over 57% of all of the votes, they captured the vast majority of the seats (82%).
As the support for the duopoly shrinks there is one party that is emerging as a new leading political player in the United Kingdom - Reform UK. Often labelled as a far-right or alternative right populist party, Reform UK originated from the social unrest and pro Brexit movement. Now, after nine years, with strong conservative leanings, anti-migrant rhetoric and promises of tax cuts, it leads in the polls, surpassing both Labour and the Conservatives. But why is Reform UK gaining such popularity, while support for other parties remains stable at best?
According to the academic paper entitled ‘Declining Trust: Investigating the Link Between Political Disillusionment and Right-Wing Attitudes in Post-Brexit Britain’ which provides the basis for this post, it appears that British society is neither leaning to the left nor to the right. Therefore, the argument that the political landscape is changing due to the broader worldview shift of the British public is not very accurate. How is it possible then that Reform UK, considered as a radical option, is gaining widespread support from the centre-ground?
The key factor that emerges in the research is trust, or rather the lack of it. Growing inequalities and broken promises, as well as systemic issues like the formerly mentioned first-past-the-post system, which makes people feel powerless and unheard, created a perfect breeding ground for populist movements. The persistent feeling of detachment between the elites and the “ordinary people” has become so strong in the UK, that voters are drawn to Reform UK, rather than to a political programme, because of Reform UK’s vocal opposition to the establishment and their self-positioning as outsiders. With widespread loss of faith in political elites, which Reform UK embodies, combined with its sharp but simple messages on the issues such as migration or housing that the establishment has failed to address, controversial programme details fall into the background.
Nevertheless, it is important not to deduce that a lack of trust in politicians is linked to right-wing views. Quite the opposite! People who position themselves on the right of the political spectrum statistically express greater trust in politicians than those on the left. What research findings show is it is not conservatism that appeals to disillusioned voters, but rather anti-establishment rhetoric. It is this that drives support for populist parties such as Reform UK. It suggests that although dissatisfaction finds an outlet in support for the populist right-wing party; a situation in which a radical left-wing party also gains support would also be highly possible.
To conclude, the significant growth of the Reform UK illustrates how political distrust has reshaped the dynamics of British politics. It demonstrates that vocal opposition to the establishment and positioning as outsiders is what makes Reform UK attractive to the public. It’s a clear protest vote. Not a conversion, but an expression of rejection. As one of the research participants put it bluntly, “I don’t agree with everything they [Reform UK] say, but at least they’re not pretending things are fine”. The question remains, however, whether this rhetoric is going to be enough to sustain support once the party finally gains power.
Bartlomiej Korolec is a Student in International Public Administration, at Erasmus Univeristy in Rotterdam, Netherlands
Blog post based on the student research project ‘Declining Trust: Investigating the Link Between Political Disillusionment and Right-Wing Attitudes in Post-Brexit Britain’*