Are We Voting On Loyalty Over Logic? The Real Influence Of Party Manifestos
Written by Barnaby Guest, intern at Unlock Democracy
A worrying set of answers?
Earlier this month, Unlock Democracy’s survey which aimed to elucidate the complex relationship between voting behaviour and manifestos revealed arguably worrying findings regarding the influence of party manifestos on how the electorate cast their vote.
One question in particular offered results that caused concern. This was, ‘How much influence do the party manifestos have over how you will cast your vote in the General Election?’. The results were staggering, only 28% of respondents claimed the manifesto would have a lot of influence over how they cast their vote. The significance of this question is prominent because it shows how influential manifestos are to the general public - according to this survey, not a whole lot.
This news isn’t novel. The lack of interest is not a consequence of the political developments since the Covid pandemic. Instead, this has been a persistent issue for some time.
In the 2011 General Election, YouGov stated that ‘there’s no evidence electors have their vote swayed by reading manifestos. Indeed very few people bother to read them at all’ [1].
For the 2017 General Election, a BMG Research poll revealed that ‘two-thirds of the UK public (67%) either don't read manifestos, or they don't know what they are’ [2].
This in turn raises the question:
Why should parties bother with a manifesto if the British are entrenched in their voting habits?
We all recognise the purpose of manifestos, a roadmap outlining intentions if elected. Yet it’s a common understanding and experience that, whether because of budget constraints or unforeseen challenges, the party in power often struggles to fully implement its promises during its tenure.
Manifestos serve as a blueprint of policies and offer an opportunity for parties to clarify their positions, whilst articulating visions for the future. Moreover, it is convention that the House of Lords will not block legislation outlined in a government’s manifesto.
If the British electorate isn’t influenced by the party manifestos, then what is driving them to vote the way they do?
This comes down to two main factors, tactical voting and electoral shocks.
The latter plays a huge role in the way people vote, unexpected events can alter the political landscape. Whether this be the ‘mini-budget’ which sent the pound spiralling. Illegal gatherings of Ministers and government staff throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, now known as ‘Partygate’. Or even the boldness to leave an international gathering early commemorating the heroes of the D-Day landings. Whilst these shocks will inadvertently drive voting intentions, an overwhelming factor is something we feel strongly about, and spend a lot of time and effort campaigning on: our broken electoral system.
Our electoral system forces what could be millions of voters into tactical voting strategies. Voters are often compelled to vote for the candidate who is most likely to defeat their least favourite candidate from either the Labour or the Conservative Party. According to a recent YouGov Poll, ‘one in five voters (22%) said they will be voting tactically, with tactical voters most likely to be Greens who are lending their vote to other parties’ [3]. In turn, this anti-democratic two-party system doesn’t allow voters to vote for the party whose manifesto aligns most closely with their beliefs.
This is not to say that a tactical vote is bad, prominent pressure groups such as Best for Britain encourage such voting, however, it doesn’t reflect the true mood and beliefs of our great nation.
Don’t worry, there is a solution!
How would a Proportional Representation (PR) system change the importance of manifestos?
To assess accurately the Labour Party’s landslide victory requires some digging. Incredibly, Labour have successfully amassed approximately 64% of the seats in parliament, with a vote share of just 34%. In other words, they have won two thirds of seats with a third of the popular vote. Reform UK won just four seats with 14% of the vote, and the Conservatives 121 seats on 24%. This “winner takes all” system lacks democratic legitimacy.
The use of a PR system would mean all votes hold equal weight. With more parties likely to gain seats, manifestos would become an important way for parties to sell themselves and their policies. In turn, manifestos would touch on more ‘niche’ issues that might attract smaller but significant voter segments, rather than appealing to a broad spectrum. This shift could potentially elevate the role of manifestos from an often ignored ‘campaign document’ to a substantive policy framework that guides governmental proceedings. Were this to happen, the elected government would have increased democratic legitimacy due to being elected based on pledges, rather than being voted in on through tactical voting
Ultimately the impact of our voting system on democratic participation remains a worrying issue in British politics. This requires immediate change.
[1] https://yougov.co.uk/politics/articles/1684-election-manifestos-do-they-matter
[2] https://www.bmgresearch.co.uk/bmg-research-poll-10-people-dont-know-manifesto/